Sat, 16 Jan 2010
2010 Presidential Election in Ukraine, Round 1
First round of the 2010 presidential election is due to take place in Ukraine tomorrow. Five years after the Orange Revolution changed the outcome of a falsified election the political picture has changed a lot. Many of the faces are still the same, but there is now a feeling of a wide disillusionment among the voters. For most Ukrainians not a great deal has changed for the better in the last five years: the global recession has hit Ukraine hard, very little has been done to fight corruption that is sadly still the way of life around here, and there is very little to show for the supposedly pro-western stance Ukraine was supposed to have over the last five years.
Yushenko, the current president, is running again. He only has around 4% support in the opinion polls, and has no chance whatsoever of getting into the second round of the election (which takes place if no candidate secures 50% in the first round). With the complete failure of living up to expectations his political career is quickly speeding toward an end, which is just as well.
The candidate leading the opinion polls is Yanukovich, the candidate that nearly won at the previous election. With 33.3% support in the opinion polls he seems sure to have a strong first place in the first round, and has a real chance of winning in the second round. He is the reason the Orange Revolution happened at all, and I am saddened to see him poised to get elected properly this time around. He still remains a puppet candidate for the old regime, which still unofficially controls much of the country. I have a strong dislike for him as a person (as I would for anyone who thinks taking part in gang rapes and beating people to within an inch of their lives is a good way to pass time), in terms of his mental abilities (inability to spell "Prime Minister" without making four spelling mistakes is a huge minus), and in the sense of where him being the president will take the country.
The runner up in the polls is the current Prime Minister, Timoshenko. She is an excellent speaker (to the point of every other candidate being too afraid of sharing the same platform with her), and has charmed much of the electorate into securing herself 16.6% in the opinion polls. Her actual policies are however very much self-serving, and her term as the Prime Minister has revealed that she has very little interest for the direction of Ukraine, as long as it ends up with her pockets becoming fuller. For that reason many voters feel uncomfortable voting for Timoshenko, despite the main opponent being Yanukovich, instead preferring to cast their votes for one of the minor candidates, effectively splitting the non-Yanukovich votes into smaller fractions. In a two-round election that is not very dangerous, as whoever comes second will have a one on one run-off.
There are three more candidates that each have around 5% in the polls, but none of them have any real chance of getting through into the second round, and so discussing them here would be a waste of time.
An interesting aspect of the Ukrainian election process is the "Against All" vote. It currently has 9.6% in the opinion polls, making it third most popular option. Unfortunately the implementation makes this option uninviting: votes cast "Against All" do not count towards or against any of the candidates, and even if it does get the majority of the votes it will not in any way effect the outcome of the election. To further confuse the matter one of the candidates has changed his name to "Against All".
In conclusion, the first round is coming up, the outcome of it is already known, the two candidates in the second round will be Yanukovich and Timoshenko. Neither option spells anything good for Ukraine, so a rather depressing election the outcome of it will invariably hold Ukraine from turning into a real country for at least another five years. Leigh Turner, the UK ambassador to Ukraine seems more optimistic about the election, but in the absence of any pro-western candidates every choice is a bad choice.
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